Porfolio Systems Review – August 2016

Home  /  Portfolio Systems Review  /  Porfolio Systems Review – August 2016

In this monthly review of MFM Capital’s active systems, we will extensively take a look at the performance of the systems and discuss the key strengths and weakness of all the asset symbols.

We believe an in-depth analysis of our systems will help our followers better understand how our strategies have performed during August and help them make informed decisions.

AstroBot V3 (Daily)

During August, AstroBot V3 (Daily) generated a 2.69% absolute gain for our account and followers. August proved to be a really good month for the AstroBot V3 as the system maintained a 100% win rate over 22 total trades.

In general, having a 100% win rate is often perceived by investors as suspicious, because a large number of systems that maintain a high win rate often do so by holding on to the losing positions for an indefinite period of time. However, as we can easily see from the individual trade history on myfxbook, most of the entry accuracy of AstroBot V3 was highly precise.

Another major strength of the system could be observed by comparing the best trade to the worst one, which came out to be 141.8 pips and -126.8 pips, respectively.

AstroBot V3 is a long-term trading system where the strategies often keep trades open for days, if not weeks! In fact, the average trade length of AstroBot V3 turned out to be 21 days. But, the low frequency of trading (only 22 trades in August), coupled with a 138.6 pips expectancy per trade, justified the long average holding time.

AstroBot V3 only trades the EURUSD. During the middle of the August, the EURUSD had a minor uptrend that pushed the price towards resistance zone near 1.1350 level. We can see that AstroBot V3’s equity curve experienced a dip when this happened. Although we had a very good month, it would be interesting to see how the strategy handles a prolonged trending EURUSD market condition on the daily timeframe.

AstroBot – Aries

After generating 16.42% return on investment in the first two quarters of 2016, AstroBot – ARIES had two losing months in a row. In August, the system generated a net -2.97% loss.

AstroBot – ARIES trades four currency pairs, AUDUSD, EURUSD, GBPUSD, and USDCAD. Unfortunately, all 11 trades across these four pairs failed to generate a single winning long trade, where only 2 of the 7 short trades made profits, with a 28% win rate.

In August, AstroBot – ARIES initiated only one trade for AUDUSD and GBPUSD, which resulted in a -47.3 pips and -95.9 pips loss. The highest number of trades was generated with EURUSD, total six. However, only one of those six trades managed to be profitable in August, yielding 97 pips. Only the USDCAD generated a positive profit factor last month with the other profitable trade that generated 148.7 pips. However, followers of USDCAD would not be happy with a mere 0.05% gain for the entire month.

02_price_chart

If we analyse the four currency pairs, side-by-side, we can see that besides a brief USDCAD downtrend (marked Green) that generated the only winning trade for the pair, all of the other three pairs mostly remained range bound during August. We believe the sideways price action was the primary reason behind the dismal performance by AstroBot – ARIES.

AstroBot – Taurus

AstroBot – Taurus also had a losing month, but the silver lining was that out of three currency pairs, EURJPY, EURUSD, and GBPUSD, only GBPUSD performed really badly, generating a -2.94% loss. Besides GBPUSD, EURJPY ended the month near breakeven, at -0.38% loss and EURUSD actually did very well, with 2.29% profits. At the end, the net loss for the system turn out to be -1.08%

If we analyse the performance of AstroBot – Taurus for 2016, we can see that the system has been fairly consistent and made profits in six months out of the last eight months.

The win rate of the 60 trades, which came out at 40% for long trades and 32% for short trades, remained consistent with the strategy’s historical win rates over the past 12 months. GBPUSD generated total 12 trades and maintained a win rate of 37% and 25% for long and short trades, which did not deviate by much compared to the overall strategy’s average.

We believe the GBPUSD performance last month was not really a matter of grave concern for investors and it would likely to remain profitable in the coming months, because the added volatility from Brexit in June 2016 did not have any long-term adverse effect on the overall efficiency of the strategy.

AstroBot – Gemini

Besides the 17.22% gain in February 2016, the performance of AstroBot – Gemini has not been very impressive this year. However, in August, the system finally turned a profit after losing money for previous three consecutive months.

The star of show for AstroBot – Gemini was AUDJPY, which generated 1.3% return on investment out of the 1.77% overall gain of the system last month. In fact, besides AUDJPY, only EURUSD made a mentionable return of 0.79&. Yield for the other four currency pairs, CADCHF, USDJPY, AUDCAD, and EURJPY all came near breakeven.

Overall, the win rate for AstroBot – Gemini came out to be 76% for long trades and only 36% for short trades. Part of the reason why the win rate for long trades were exceptionally good is AUDJPY, which maintained a 100% win rate over the five long trades and generated a total 157.2 pips.

Given the depressing performance of the strategy for majority of the currency pairs, we strongly recommend that investors consider to follow only AUDJPY and EURUSD signals for now.

AstroBot – Cancer

AstroBot – Cancer has produced the worst monthly performance in August with a -5.75% loss. However, if we take a close look at each of the two trading instruments, EURUSD and XAUUSD (GOLD/US Dollar), we can easily see that XAUUSD performed relatively better compared to the EURUSD.

During August, the XAUUSD only made a 0.95% loss from eight trades, where it maintained a 37.5% win rate. On the other hand, the EURUSD produced a total four trades, where all of those turned unprofitable.

In fact, since January 2016, the XAUUSD has made an overall 6.92% gain, where the EURUSD made a combined loss of -0.84%.

Considering the dull performance of EURUSD, we recommend that investors consider to follow only the XAUUSD for the time being.

Please note that this strategy is no longer active for EURCAD, so you should discount this pair while considering the overall performance of AstroBot – Cancer.

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *