Portfolio Systems Review – September 2016

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Besides Gemini, most of our five strategies did not do well in September. While the overall performance of the strategies was dismal, some of the individual symbols traded by our algorithms did pretty well last month. In this review, we will try to isolate the winning combination and discuss how our strategies might perform in the coming weeks based on current market condition in the global Forex and commodities markets.

AstroBot V3 (Daily)

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During September, AstroBot V3 (Daily) opened several trades, but so far has closed only three trades. In those three trades, the strategy has managed to turn only a 0.36% net gain for the investors.

Although the net gain for the month was negligible, the strategy maintained a 100% win rate during last month. Each of these three EURUSD trades were closed with 135 to 138 pips of profit in the first week of the month when the pair had a bullish swing. Altogether, these three trades yielded a net 408.9 pips with a sharp ratio of 0.63.  All the other trades opened by the strategy in the later part of the month are still open.

AstroBot V3 is a long-term oriented trading algorithm and currently has over 34 open trades. Given the consistency of the system in the last 12-month period, we believe it would likely generate a substantial gain for our investors in the coming weeks.

AstroBot – Aries

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September turned out to be a negative month for Aries, as the overall strategy lost around 1.26% equity during the last 30 days. During September, Aries opened only 10 trades, and only 3 of those trades turned out to be winners.

Aries trades mainly four currency pairs, EURUSD, GBPUSD, AUDUSD, and USDCAD. Out of these four pairs, only GBPUSD maintained a 1.11% profit, where EURUSD and AUDUSD generated -1.92% and -0.44% losses, respectively.

On the other hand, the USDCAD pair only opened a single trade, which is still open with around 12 pips of profit.

02_aries_currency_pairs

Aries opened two GBPUSD trades last month, the first trade produced a -95.9 pips loss, but the second trade managed to close with 217.7 pips profit. Besides this large winning trade, the other 9 winning and losing trades closed within a 100 pips range, indicating a range bound market condition for the four pairs.

Since Aries is mostly a trend following strategy, the market condition was not suitable for it and that’s part of the reason why it ended up with a -1.26% net loss in September.

A quick glance over AUDUSD and USDCAD reveals that there are two minor uptrends forming. If these two pairs remain range bound in October, these two pairs may generate some good short trades. We recommend that investors consider this opportunity over the course of the next few weeks and maintain their subscription for AUDUSD and USDCAD.

AstroBot – Taurus

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Taurus had a particularly bad month as the strategy overall lost around -4.14% equity in September. However, if we take a closer look at the individual currency pairs, we can see that GBPUSD actually turned a 0.69% profit last month, while the other two pairs, EURUSD and EURJPY lost -2.18% and -2.69% equity, respectively.

Overall, Taurus opened 62 trades last month and maintained a 19% win rate for long trades, where the short trades maintained a healthy 38% win rate. However, besides the two GBPUSD trades at the end of the month, which generated 82 pips of profit each, the bulk of the trades did not do very well.

The dismal performance of both EURUSD and EURJPY could be attributed to a range bound market condition last month.

On the other hand, GBPUSD initially had a sharp bearish trend in the first week, and it is currently trading near the strong support zone around the 1.2875 level. As we mentioned during last month’s review, the GBPUSD strategy seems to be doing fine despite the added market volatility and the pair has proved to the only winning symbol in September. Going forward, if the 1.2875 level is broken, investors can look forward to a number of large winners in the coming week.

AstroBot – Gemini

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Out of our five active strategies, Gemini had the best month in September with its 1.03% net gain. Overall, Gemini opened 32 trades in September and end the month with a healthy 1.23 profit factor, where the win rate for long trades and short trades came out at 36% and 69%, respectively.

But, taking a closer look at the individual performances of each pair reveals that it was USDJPY that pulled through and made the bulk of the profits.

Compared to 2.08% net gain for USDJPY, the other five currency pairs, including, CADCHF, EURUSD, AUDJPY, AUDCAD, and EURJPY had a pretty neutral performance in September.

In fact, most pairs ended the month near breakeven, while AUDJPY managed to lose -1.31% of the equity. The massive loss from AUDJPY was the primary reason why Gemini could not post a higher profit margin last month.

While we are not happy with the performance of AUDJPY, it is worth noting that last month, in August 2016, AUDJPY was the highest grossing currency pair of Gemini. Hence, it would not be a wise idea for investors to simply unsubscribe this pair from their portfolio.

Also, since most of the pairs either came close to breakeven, we are optimistic that Gemini would continue to perform well in the coming months.

AstroBot – Cancer

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Besides Taurus, Cancer also had a dismal month in September, as the strategy made a -3.71% loss last month.

Cancer only trades one currency pair, EURUSD, and a commodity pair, XAUUSD (Gold). While the performance of EURUSD was somewhat acceptable, which generated a -1.75% loss, the performance of XAUUSD turned out to be the worst among all the symbols across five of our strategies. XAUUSD closed the last trade of the month on September 29, 2016, at a -1004 pips loss, which ended the month at -2.55% net loss for the symbol.

After making as much as 10.24% gains in June 2016, Cancer’s performance over the last two months was not very optimistic. Still, the strategy has maintained a 1.59% net gain this year.

Cancer still has three EURUSD open trades, where two of the these are trading with 115.76 and 87.81 pips profit. We believe if these two winning trades were closed at the end of September, the overall performance would have come close to being “acceptable.” Hence, it gives us hope that Cancer would continue to perform during trending markets in the future.

*Please note that this strategy is no longer active for EURCAD, so you should discount this pair while considering the overall performance of AstroBot – Cancer.

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